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U.S./China Trade Talks to Dominate Market Sentiment
FOMC Meeting Wednesday, but Central Banks Across the Globe Are Busy
Argentina's Milei Wins Big in the Midterms
What’s happening across this Global Week Ahead?
Renewed trade tensions and talks between Washington, Beijing and Canada will dominate a week, headlined by
Central bank decisions in the United States, Canada, and Europe, while
Argentina's voters head to the polls
Next are Reuters’ five world market themes, re-ordered by equity traders—
(1) Five of the Seven Mega-Cap Stars Report Their Q3 Earnings
Mega-cap tech and growth company earnings reports headline a massive week of U.S. corporate results that could shed light on the state of the effervescent "AI trade.”
One-third of S&P500 constituents are set to report in the coming week alone, including drugmaker Eli Lilly (LLY - Free Report) , oil majors Exxon (XOM - Free Report) and Chevron (CVX - Free Report) , and payment firms Visa (V - Free Report) and Mastercard (MA - Free Report) .
Investors will also be scouring data for signs of the costs and impact of shifting U.S. trade policy. S&P500 companies are estimated to have increased Q3 earnings by 9.2% from the prior year, with a greater-than-typical number of companies beating profit estimates so far, according to LSEG IBES data.
(2) On Wednesday, Both Bond & Stock Traders Count on a 25-bps FOMC Cut
Markets are all but certain that the U.S. Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by a quarter-point when it concludes its meeting on Wednesday, and they are showing similar conviction for another trim in December.
Still, that year-end cut might be less clear if the government shutdown doesn't end, leaving data-guided policymakers driving blind without official economic indicators.
Meanwhile, Trump is expected to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping on Thursday as part of a trip to Asia and on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation CEO Summit.
Their long-awaited rendezvous had been called into question following an escalation in trade tensions and a standoff over China's restrictions on rare earth exports, as well as U.S. curbs on technology exports amid Trump's threat to impose 100% tariffs, all of which remain a market vexation — and a consideration for the Fed.
(3) The ECB meeting ends on Thursday. They Likely Stay Pat. The Bank of Canada (BoC) Looks to Cut its Policy Rate for a 2nd Month.
That's right, the Bank of Canada is also expected to cut rates for a second month running on Wednesday with a pick-up in inflation not expected to stand in its way, although Trump's announcement that all trade talks with the country are terminated will cast a cloud.
And the European Central Bank (ECB) ends a meeting on Thursday, although it appears to be in "nothing to see here" mode, with a Reuters poll of economists predicting it is likely to leave rates unchanged at 2% for a third straight meeting and remain on hold until the end of the year. Traders see a roughly 65% chance of a quarter-point cut by mid-2026 given the downside risks to economic growth.
Headwinds are looming, however. Apart from trade tensions, there is still French political turbulence and an election in the Netherlands on Wednesday dominated by populist cross-currents. So, ECB chief Christine Lagarde may be pressed on whether the bloc remains in a "good place.”
(4) Also Thursday, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) Should Stay Put with Its Policy Rate
The Bank of Japan is likely to forgo a rate hike next Thursday in favor of a move in December or January, but not due to pressure from the country's dovish new premier.
Two-thirds of analysts polled by Reuters say fiscal and monetary dove Sanae Takaichi, who ascended to the top job on Tuesday, won't delay monetary tightening, although her oft-repeated view is that the central bank should be aligned with government policies.
Instead, analysts and traders point to BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda's consistently cautious tone, particularly on potential tariff fallout, even with his board performing a conspicuously hawkish pivot last month.
And his desire to see more data — including U.S. Christmas shopping trends — has most analysts eyeing a December hike at the earliest.
(5) Argentina’s Mid-term Elections Re-shape the Ruling Milei Era
Argentina's mid-term elections on Sunday gave President Javier Milei a convincing win in the country’s midterms, outpacing rival Peronists 41% to 24.5%. After Milei’s inflation-crushing economic reform program, the peso is up +10% upon his victory.
Deepening ties with Washington have delivered some of the best returns for emerging market investors since Milei took over in December 2023. U.S. President Donald Trump's unprecedented backing, including direct intervention in FX markets, a $20 billion central bank swap line and the prospect of another $20 billion loan to shore up government bonds hadn't previously stopped the peso's slide to record lows.
Zacks #1 Rank (STRONG BUY) Stocks
I picked a wide range of large-cap stock this week.
One from Canada, one from the U.S., and one that is basically a Mainland China multi-national, domiciled in Ireland.
(1) Royal Bank of Canada (RY - Free Report) : This is a $147 a share stock, with a market cap of $207.2B. It is found in the Zacks Foreign-Bank industry. There is a Zacks Value score of FC a Zacks Growth score of D, and a Zacks Momentum score of B.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Royal Bank of Canada operates under the master brand name of RBC.
They are Canada's largest bank as measured by assets and market capitalization, and one of North America's leading diversified financial services companies.
They provide personal and commercial banking, wealth management services, insurance, corporate and investment banking, and transaction processing services on a global basis.
They have approximately 70,000 full- and part-time employees who serve more than 15 million personal, business, public sector and institutional clients through offices in Canada, the U.S. and 36 other countries.
(2) Lam Research (LRCX - Free Report) : This is a $148 a share stock, with a market cap of $186.1B. It is found in the Zacks Electronics-Semiconductor industry. There is a Zacks Value score of D, a Zacks Growth score of D, and a Zacks Momentum score of B.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Headquartered in Fremont, CA, Lam Research supplies wafer fabrication equipment and services to the semiconductor industry.
In addition, it serves the related markets that rely on semiconductor processes and require production-proven manufacturing capabilities, such as complementary metal-oxide-semiconductor image sensors and micro-electromechanical systems (MEMS).
Lam holds a strong position in deposition and etch, which address numerous critical steps in the fabrication process with the goal of reducing defect rates, improving yields, lowering costs and reducing the processing time.
Its core competencies lie in areas such as nanoscale applications enablement, chemistry, plasma and fluidics, and advanced systems engineering.
The company caters to the needs of semiconductor memory, foundry and integrated device manufacturers (IDMs) by providing them with integrating hardware, process, materials, software, and process control, enabling results on the wafer.
The company also addresses back-end wafer-level packaging processes by offering advanced packaging solutions that support fan-out panel-level packaging, thus meeting the requirement for 3D stacking of high bandwidth memory (HBM).
Lam Research reported revenues of $18.44 billion in fiscal 2025, up 24% from fiscal 2024. It serves three market segments — Memory, Foundry and Logic/Other from where it generated 42%, 45% and 13% of its total revenues in fiscal 2025, respectively.
The company’s sales of new leading-edge equipment in deposition, etch and clean markets amount to its systems revenues, which stood at $11.49 billion (62% of fiscal 2025 total revenues).
In addition, Lam’s Customer Support Business Group revenues comprise sales of customer service, spares, upgrades, and non-leading-edge equipment from Lam’s Reliant product line. Customer support-related revenues and other revenues were $6.94 billion (38% of fiscal 2025 total revenues).
The revenue distribution by geography in fiscal 2025 was as follows: Korea contributed 22%, Taiwan 19%, Japan 10%, China 34%, the United States accounted for 7%, Europe 3% and South East Asia contributed 5%.
Being a leading producer of specialized equipment, most of the competition comes from other large equipment makers, such as Hitachi, Tokyo Electron and Applied Materials.
(3) PDD Holdings ADR (PDD - Free Report) : This is a $133 a share stock, with a market cap of $185.6B. It is found in the Zacks Internet Commerce industry. There is a Zacks Value score of B, a Zacks Growth score of D, and a Zacks Momentum score of F.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
PDD Holdings Inc. is a multi-national e-commerce group, which owns and operates a portfolio of businesses.
The company owns and operates the e-commerce platforms Pinduoduo and Temu
The company was founded in 2015 by Colin Huang and is primarily based in Shanghai, China
The company was formerly known as Pinduoduo Inc. and changed its name in February 2023
Its primary goal is to integrate businesses and consumers into the digital economy by building a strong network of sourcing, logistics, and fulfillment capabilities.
PDD Holdings Inc. is legally incorporated in Dublin, Ireland.
Key Global Macro
Friday’s shutdown-delayed U.S. PCE inflation index data for SEP could be useful.
On Monday, U.S. Durable Goods Orders for SEP come out. Ex-defense orders should be up +1.9% y/y, the same as the prior data.
On Tuesday, Australia’s trimmed mean CPI for Q3 comes out. The prior reading was +2.7% y/y.
On Wednesday, there is a Bank of Canada (BoC) rate decision. The policy rate of 2.5% is likely to be cut, given the poor circumstances of the economy.
The U.S. FOMC likely cuts its policy rate 25 bps.
On Thursday, the European Central Bank (ECB) likely leaves its main refi rate at 2.15%.
On Friday, the Euro Zone core HICP inflation rate gets a OCT update.2.4%Y/y is the prior data.
The U.S. PCE price index for SEP finally comes out. +2.7% yy is the prior data. The prior core PCE rate was +2.9% y/y.
Conclusion
On Oct. 22nd, 2025 Zacks Research Director Sheraz Mian updated this Q3 earnings data.
His four key points:
(1) For the 99 S&P500 members that have reported Q3 results, total earnings are up +13.7% from the same period last year, on +8.2% higher revenues. 86.9% beat EPS estimates and 81.8% beat revenue estimates
The proportion of these 99 index members beating both EPS and revenue estimates is 75.8%
(2) For the Finance sector, we now have Q3 results from 54.5% of the sector’s total market capitalization in the S&P 500 index.
Total earnings for these Finance sector companies are up +23.0% from the same period last year, on +12.0% higher revenues
97.0% beat EPS estimates and 87.9% beat revenue estimates
(3) The Finance sector’s Q3 earnings performance is tracking significantly above what we have seen from the sector in other recent periods.
Both in terms of the earnings and revenue growth pace, as well as the beats percentages
In fact, the sector’s Q3 revenue beats percentage of 87.9% is the highest for this group of companies over the preceding 20-quarter period
(4) The above-average beats percentages at this stage of the Q3 reporting cycle are notable in light of the favorable revisions trend that was in place ahead of the start of this earnings season.
In other words, actual Finance sector results came in ahead of expectations — that had already moved up — before these results came in.
Enjoy this October week, in trading and investing!
John Blank, PhD. Zacks Chief Equity Strategist and Economist
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5 of 7 Mega-Caps Report: Global Week Ahead
Key Takeaways
What’s happening across this Global Week Ahead?
Next are Reuters’ five world market themes, re-ordered by equity traders—
(1) Five of the Seven Mega-Cap Stars Report Their Q3 Earnings
Mega-cap tech and growth company earnings reports headline a massive week of U.S. corporate results that could shed light on the state of the effervescent "AI trade.”
Microsoft (MSFT - Free Report) , Apple (AAPL - Free Report) , Alphabet (GOOGL - Free Report) , Amazon (AMZN - Free Report) and Meta Platforms META — five of the "Magnificent Seven" mega-cap companies that dominate equity indexes — all report earnings.
One-third of S&P500 constituents are set to report in the coming week alone, including drugmaker Eli Lilly (LLY - Free Report) , oil majors Exxon (XOM - Free Report) and Chevron (CVX - Free Report) , and payment firms Visa (V - Free Report) and Mastercard (MA - Free Report) .
Investors will also be scouring data for signs of the costs and impact of shifting U.S. trade policy. S&P500 companies are estimated to have increased Q3 earnings by 9.2% from the prior year, with a greater-than-typical number of companies beating profit estimates so far, according to LSEG IBES data.
(2) On Wednesday, Both Bond & Stock Traders Count on a 25-bps FOMC Cut
Markets are all but certain that the U.S. Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by a quarter-point when it concludes its meeting on Wednesday, and they are showing similar conviction for another trim in December.
Still, that year-end cut might be less clear if the government shutdown doesn't end, leaving data-guided policymakers driving blind without official economic indicators.
Meanwhile, Trump is expected to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping on Thursday as part of a trip to Asia and on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation CEO Summit.
Their long-awaited rendezvous had been called into question following an escalation in trade tensions and a standoff over China's restrictions on rare earth exports, as well as U.S. curbs on technology exports amid Trump's threat to impose 100% tariffs, all of which remain a market vexation — and a consideration for the Fed.
(3) The ECB meeting ends on Thursday. They Likely Stay Pat. The Bank of Canada (BoC) Looks to Cut its Policy Rate for a 2nd Month.
That's right, the Bank of Canada is also expected to cut rates for a second month running on Wednesday with a pick-up in inflation not expected to stand in its way, although Trump's announcement that all trade talks with the country are terminated will cast a cloud.
And the European Central Bank (ECB) ends a meeting on Thursday, although it appears to be in "nothing to see here" mode, with a Reuters poll of economists predicting it is likely to leave rates unchanged at 2% for a third straight meeting and remain on hold until the end of the year. Traders see a roughly 65% chance of a quarter-point cut by mid-2026 given the downside risks to economic growth.
Headwinds are looming, however. Apart from trade tensions, there is still French political turbulence and an election in the Netherlands on Wednesday dominated by populist cross-currents. So, ECB chief Christine Lagarde may be pressed on whether the bloc remains in a "good place.”
(4) Also Thursday, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) Should Stay Put with Its Policy Rate
The Bank of Japan is likely to forgo a rate hike next Thursday in favor of a move in December or January, but not due to pressure from the country's dovish new premier.
Two-thirds of analysts polled by Reuters say fiscal and monetary dove Sanae Takaichi, who ascended to the top job on Tuesday, won't delay monetary tightening, although her oft-repeated view is that the central bank should be aligned with government policies.
Instead, analysts and traders point to BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda's consistently cautious tone, particularly on potential tariff fallout, even with his board performing a conspicuously hawkish pivot last month.
And his desire to see more data — including U.S. Christmas shopping trends — has most analysts eyeing a December hike at the earliest.
(5) Argentina’s Mid-term Elections Re-shape the Ruling Milei Era
Argentina's mid-term elections on Sunday gave President Javier Milei a convincing win in the country’s midterms, outpacing rival Peronists 41% to 24.5%. After Milei’s inflation-crushing economic reform program, the peso is up +10% upon his victory.
Deepening ties with Washington have delivered some of the best returns for emerging market investors since Milei took over in December 2023. U.S. President Donald Trump's unprecedented backing, including direct intervention in FX markets, a $20 billion central bank swap line and the prospect of another $20 billion loan to shore up government bonds hadn't previously stopped the peso's slide to record lows.
Zacks #1 Rank (STRONG BUY) Stocks
I picked a wide range of large-cap stock this week.
One from Canada, one from the U.S., and one that is basically a Mainland China multi-national, domiciled in Ireland.
(1) Royal Bank of Canada (RY - Free Report) : This is a $147 a share stock, with a market cap of $207.2B. It is found in the Zacks Foreign-Bank industry. There is a Zacks Value score of FC a Zacks Growth score of D, and a Zacks Momentum score of B.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Royal Bank of Canada operates under the master brand name of RBC.
They are Canada's largest bank as measured by assets and market capitalization, and one of North America's leading diversified financial services companies.
They provide personal and commercial banking, wealth management services, insurance, corporate and investment banking, and transaction processing services on a global basis.
They have approximately 70,000 full- and part-time employees who serve more than 15 million personal, business, public sector and institutional clients through offices in Canada, the U.S. and 36 other countries.
(2) Lam Research (LRCX - Free Report) : This is a $148 a share stock, with a market cap of $186.1B. It is found in the Zacks Electronics-Semiconductor industry. There is a Zacks Value score of D, a Zacks Growth score of D, and a Zacks Momentum score of B.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Headquartered in Fremont, CA, Lam Research supplies wafer fabrication equipment and services to the semiconductor industry.
In addition, it serves the related markets that rely on semiconductor processes and require production-proven manufacturing capabilities, such as complementary metal-oxide-semiconductor image sensors and micro-electromechanical systems (MEMS).
Lam holds a strong position in deposition and etch, which address numerous critical steps in the fabrication process with the goal of reducing defect rates, improving yields, lowering costs and reducing the processing time.
Its core competencies lie in areas such as nanoscale applications enablement, chemistry, plasma and fluidics, and advanced systems engineering.
The company caters to the needs of semiconductor memory, foundry and integrated device manufacturers (IDMs) by providing them with integrating hardware, process, materials, software, and process control, enabling results on the wafer.
The company also addresses back-end wafer-level packaging processes by offering advanced packaging solutions that support fan-out panel-level packaging, thus meeting the requirement for 3D stacking of high bandwidth memory (HBM).
Lam Research reported revenues of $18.44 billion in fiscal 2025, up 24% from fiscal 2024. It serves three market segments — Memory, Foundry and Logic/Other from where it generated 42%, 45% and 13% of its total revenues in fiscal 2025, respectively.
The company’s sales of new leading-edge equipment in deposition, etch and clean markets amount to its systems revenues, which stood at $11.49 billion (62% of fiscal 2025 total revenues).
In addition, Lam’s Customer Support Business Group revenues comprise sales of customer service, spares, upgrades, and non-leading-edge equipment from Lam’s Reliant product line. Customer support-related revenues and other revenues were $6.94 billion (38% of fiscal 2025 total revenues).
The revenue distribution by geography in fiscal 2025 was as follows: Korea contributed 22%, Taiwan 19%, Japan 10%, China 34%, the United States accounted for 7%, Europe 3% and South East Asia contributed 5%.
Being a leading producer of specialized equipment, most of the competition comes from other large equipment makers, such as Hitachi, Tokyo Electron and Applied Materials.
(3) PDD Holdings ADR (PDD - Free Report) : This is a $133 a share stock, with a market cap of $185.6B. It is found in the Zacks Internet Commerce industry. There is a Zacks Value score of B, a Zacks Growth score of D, and a Zacks Momentum score of F.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
PDD Holdings Inc. is a multi-national e-commerce group, which owns and operates a portfolio of businesses.
Its primary goal is to integrate businesses and consumers into the digital economy by building a strong network of sourcing, logistics, and fulfillment capabilities.
PDD Holdings Inc. is legally incorporated in Dublin, Ireland.
Key Global Macro
Friday’s shutdown-delayed U.S. PCE inflation index data for SEP could be useful.
On Monday, U.S. Durable Goods Orders for SEP come out. Ex-defense orders should be up +1.9% y/y, the same as the prior data.
On Tuesday, Australia’s trimmed mean CPI for Q3 comes out. The prior reading was +2.7% y/y.
On Wednesday, there is a Bank of Canada (BoC) rate decision. The policy rate of 2.5% is likely to be cut, given the poor circumstances of the economy.
The U.S. FOMC likely cuts its policy rate 25 bps.
On Thursday, the European Central Bank (ECB) likely leaves its main refi rate at 2.15%.
On Friday, the Euro Zone core HICP inflation rate gets a OCT update.2.4%Y/y is the prior data.
The U.S. PCE price index for SEP finally comes out. +2.7% yy is the prior data. The prior core PCE rate was +2.9% y/y.
Conclusion
On Oct. 22nd, 2025 Zacks Research Director Sheraz Mian updated this Q3 earnings data.
His four key points:
(1) For the 99 S&P500 members that have reported Q3 results, total earnings are up +13.7% from the same period last year, on +8.2% higher revenues.
86.9% beat EPS estimates and 81.8% beat revenue estimates
(2) For the Finance sector, we now have Q3 results from 54.5% of the sector’s total market capitalization in the S&P 500 index.
(3) The Finance sector’s Q3 earnings performance is tracking significantly above what we have seen from the sector in other recent periods.
(4) The above-average beats percentages at this stage of the Q3 reporting cycle are notable in light of the favorable revisions trend that was in place ahead of the start of this earnings season.
In other words, actual Finance sector results came in ahead of expectations — that had already moved up — before these results came in.
Enjoy this October week, in trading and investing!
John Blank, PhD.
Zacks Chief Equity Strategist and Economist